Atlanta Fed Working Papers

The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a working paper series to convey the research of staff economists and visiting scholars and stimulate professional discussion and exploration of economic and financial subjects.


Quantifying "Quantitative Tightening" (QT): How Many Rate Hikes Is QT Equivalent To?

Bin Wei
Working Paper 2022-8
July 2022
Examining the relationship between the Fed's balance sheet policy and its interest rate policy, the author quantifies how many interest rate hikes quantitative tightening equals, and he compares the effect of tightening during normal times versus during turbulent times.

The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures

José Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, and Emil Mihaylov
Working Paper 2022-7
July 2022
The authors find that the shift to remote work moderates wage growth by 2 percentage points over two years, shrinking the real-wage catchup effect on near-term inflation pressures by more than half.

Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax

Elias Ilin, Laurence Kotlikoff, and M. Melinda Pitts
Working Paper 2022-6
June 2022
For richer or for poorer? Investigating a new measure of the marriage tax—the reduction in future spending from marrying—the authors find that the marriage tax rate, which averages 2.69 percent, reduces the probability of marrying by up to 13 percent.

The Transmission of Financial Shocks and Leverage of Financial Institutions: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Framework

Kirstin Hubrich and Daniel Waggoner
Working Paper 2022-5
June 2022
Investigating the role of leverage of financial institutions in the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, the authors find empirical evidence that the real effects of financial shocks were amplified by the leverage of financial institutions during the Great Recession.

The Downward Spiral

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, and Karen A. Kopecky
Working Paper 2022-4
February 2022
There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. The authors develop a framework to study the opioid epidemic and find that drops in the price of both medical prescriptions and illicit opioids combined with increases in prescribed dosages are the primary drivers.

Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?

Elias Ilin, Samantha Shampine, and Ellyn Terry
Working Paper 2022-3
February 2022
Exploring the impact of free pre-K programs on maternal participation in the labor force, the authors find that the availability of free pre-K programs increases the labor force participation rate of mothers with one child age 3 or 4 by an average of 2.3 percentage points.

Fintech Entry, Firm Financial Inclusion, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Emerging Economies

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, Federico S. Mandelman, and Victoria Nuguer
Working Paper 2022-2
January 2022
Examining the impact of fintech on emerging economies, the authors find that unless greater fintech entry leads to lower borrowing costs for firms that adopt fintech credit, an expanding number of fintech intermediaries will have no meaningful consequences on credit markets and business cycles in emerging economies.

Racial Disparities in Mortgage Lending: New Evidence Based on Processing Time

Bin Wei and Feng Zhao
Working Paper 2022-1
January 2022
Examining racial disparities in mortgage processing time prior to the global financial crisis, the authors find that Black borrowers are underrepresented and experience a longer processing time than White borrowers among the mortgages securitized by government-sponsored enterprises.

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