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The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.

August 4, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.4 percent on August 4, up from 1.3 percent on August 1. After the August 1 GDPNow update and recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, US Census Bureau, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.42 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, August 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

August 1, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 29, 2022

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.1 percent on July 29. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28 was -0.9 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 27.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, August 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 27, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.2 percent on July 27, up from -1.6 percent on July 19. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -2.50 percentage points to -2.30 percentage points, while the the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.18 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the second quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the third quarter of 2022 will be on Friday, July 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 19, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19, down from -1.5 percent on July 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -8.8 percent to -10.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 15, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.9 percent and -13.7 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -13.8 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 8, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.2 percent on July 8, up from -1.9 percent on July 7. After this morning's employment situation report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.3 percent and -14.9 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -13.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 7, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.9 percent on July 7, up from -2.1 percent on July 1. After this week's releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Census Bureau, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.8 percent and -15.1 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and -14.9 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth decreased from 0.38 percentage points to 0.21 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 1, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 30, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth increased from -0.11 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 27, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on June 27, up from 0.0 percent on June 16. After recent releases from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the National Association of Realtors, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -9.0 percent to -8.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is is Thursday, June 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 16, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 16, unchanged from June 15 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -8.5 percent to -7.7 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, June 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 15, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 15, down from 0.9 percent on June 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 8, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.61 percentage points to -1.62 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 7, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 7, down from 1.3 percent on June 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.4 percent and -8.3 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and -8.5 percent, respectively. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.25 percentage points to -0.13 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 1, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on June 1, down from 1.9 percent on May 27. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 4.7 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and -8.2 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 27, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.9 percent on May 27, up from 1.8 percent on May 25. After this morning's releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real net exports was partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 25, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.8 percent on May 25, down from 2.4 percent on May 18. After the May 18 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -1.8 percent to -4.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 18, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 2.4 percent on May 18, down from 2.5 percent on May 17. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.1 percent to -0.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 17, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 2.5 percent on May 17, up from 1.8 percent on May 9. After the May 9 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth increased from 4.3 percent to 4.8 percent, -2.8 percent to -1.3 percent, and 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 9, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.8 percent on May 9, down from 2.2 percent on May 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -1.3 percent to -2.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 4, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 2.2 percent on May 4, up from 1.6 percent on May 2. After this morning's light vehicle sales release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.6 percent to 4.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 2, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on May 2, down from 1.9 percent on April 29. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.8 percent and -1.3 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 29, 2022

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.9 percent on April 29. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 28 was -1.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 27.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 27, 2022

The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.4 percent on April 27, unchanged from April 26 after rounding. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real net exports.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the second quarter of 2022 will be on Friday, April 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 26, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.4 percent on April 26, down from 1.3 percent on April 19. After yesterday’s annual revision to retail sales by the US Census Bureau, the nowcast for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.8 percent to 2.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 19, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on April 19, up from 1.1 percent on April 14. After recent releases from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.8 percent to 0.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 14, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.1 percent on April 14, unchanged from April 8 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, modest increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real net exports were offset by declines in the nowcasts of real government spending growth and real residential investment growth.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 8, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.1 percent on April 8, up from 0.9 percent on April 5. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.0 percent to -0.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 5, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on April 5, down from 1.5 percent on April 1. After releases following the April 1 GDPNow update from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute of Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.2 percent and -0.6 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and -1.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.31 percentage points to -1.41 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 1, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.5 percent on April 1, up from 1.3 percent on March 31. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute of Supply Management, an increase in the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.9 percent and -1.2 percent, respectively, to 4.2 percent and -0.6 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast in first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.1 percent to 0.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 31, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on March 31, up from 0.9 percent on March 24. After this morning's personal income and outlays report from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast in first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -5.8 percent to -1.2 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast in first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.2 percent to 3.9 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.01 percentage points to -1.31 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 24, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on March 24, down from 1.3 percent on March 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -4.2 percent to -5.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 31. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 17, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on March 17, up from 1.2 percent on March 16. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -4.9 percent to -4.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 16, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.2 percent on March 16, up from 0.5 percent on March 8. After this morning’s retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.4 percent to 4.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 8, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on March 8, up from 0.0 percent on March 1. After this morning’s international trade release from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.3 percent to 3.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.94 percentage points to -1.00 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 1, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on March 1, down from 0.6 percent on February 25. After recent data releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast in first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent was more than offset by a decline in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth from -0.10 percentage points to -0.94 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 25, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.6 percent on February 25, down from 1.3 percent on February 17. After this morning’s personal income and outlays report from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.2 percent to 1.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 17, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on February 17, down from 1.5 percent on February 16. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 4.7 percent to 0.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 16, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.5 percent on February 16, up from 0.7 percent on February 9. After the February 9 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.5 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -4.5 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.6 percent to 1.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 9, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.7 percent on February 9, unchanged from February 8 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -2.40 percentage points to -2.41 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 8, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.7 percent on February 8, up from 0.1 percent on February 1. After the February 1 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 2.0 percent, -7.0 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 2.5 percent, -6.4 percent, and 1.6 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 1, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.1 percent on February 1, unchanged from January 28 after rounding. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -7.4 percent to -7.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, February 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 28, 2022

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.1 percent on January 28. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 27 was 6.9 percent, 0.4 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on January 26.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, February 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 26, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.5 percent on January 26, up from 5.1 percent on January 19. After the January 19 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 18.6 percent to 28.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.19 percentage points to 0.06 percentage points.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter of 2022 will be on Friday, January 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 19, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 5.1 percent on January 19, up from 5.0 percent on January 14. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 18.1 percent to 18.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 14, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 5.0 percent on January 14, down from 6.8 percent on January 10. After the January 10 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.5 percent to 2.0 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 17.8 percent to 18.1 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.21 percentage points to 0.19 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 10, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.8 percent on January 10, up from 6.7 percent on January 6. After the January 6 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 17.4 percent to 17.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 6, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.7 percent on January 6, down from 7.4 percent on January 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 5.6 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively, to 4.5 percent and 17.4 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.0 percentage points to 0.21 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, January 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 4, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 7.4 percent on January 4, down from 7.6 percent on December 23. After the December 23 GDPNow update and releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 16.9 percent to 18.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.46 percentage points to 0.0 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 23, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 7.6 percent on December 23, up from 7.2 percent on December 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 13.6 percent to 16.9 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 5.7 percent to 5.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.43 percentage points to 0.46 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 7.2 percent on December 16, up from 7.0 percent on December 15. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 11.5 percent to 13.6 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 5.9 percent to 5.7 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 23. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 15, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 7.0 percent on December 15, down from 8.7 percent on December 9. After the December 9 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 8.6 percent to 5.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.36 percentage points to 0.44 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 9, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.7 percent on December 9, up from 8.6 percent on December 7. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.51 percentage points to 1.59 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 7, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.6 percent on December 7, down from 9.7 percent on December 1. After the December 1 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 9.6 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively, to 8.6 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.42 percentage points to 0.36 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 9.7 percent on December 1, up from 8.6 percent on November 24. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 7.9 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively, to 9.6 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 2.9 percent to 2.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 24, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.6 percent on November 24, up from 8.2 percent on November 17. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors, the US Census Bureau, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 10.3 percent to 12.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.45 percentage points to 0.44 percentage points. These gains were partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 9.2 percent to 7.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 17, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent on November 17, down from 8.7 percent on November 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent to -4.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.7 percent on November 16, up from 8.2 percent on November 10. After the November 10 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 9.1 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively, to 9.3 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 3.5 percent to 2.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 10, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent on November 10, down from 8.5 percent on November 4. After the November 4 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 9.4 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively, to 9.1 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 4, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.5 percent on November 4, up from 8.2 percent on November 1. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.9 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively, to 9.4 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.43 percentage points to -0.46 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 29, 2021

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.6 percent on October 29. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 28 was 2.0 percent, 1.8 percentage point above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 27.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, November 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.2 percent on October 27, down from 0.5 percent on October 19. After the October 19 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors, and the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 2.1 percent to 0.8 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 9.0 percent to 9.3 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.56 percentage points to -1.81 percentage points.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the third quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 will be on Friday, October 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 19, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 15, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.2 percent on October 15, down from 1.3 percent on October 8. After this week's releases by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.0 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, to 0.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 8, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 8, unchanged from October 5. After this morning's releases of the employment situation report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 10.5 percent to 10.7 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.1 percent to 1.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 5, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 5, down from 2.3 percent on October 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.4 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively, to 1.1 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.27 percentage points to -1.57 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 2.3 percent on October 1, down from 3.2 percent on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 1.4 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.36 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.2 percent on September 27, down from 3.7 percent on September 21. After the September 21 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the National Association of Realtors and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 19.0 percent to 15.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 21, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 21, up from 3.6 percent on September 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.6 percent to -1.5 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, September 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent on September 16, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding. After this week’s releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 19.2 percent to 18.9 percent was partially offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.41 percentage points to -1.37 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 21. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 10, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 10, unchanged from September 2 after rounding. After the September 2 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 19.3 percent to 19.1 percent after rounding.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, September 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 2, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 2, down from 5.3 percent on September 1. After this morning's releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.6 percent and 23.4 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.90 percentage points to -1.41 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 5.3 percent on September 1, up from 5.1 percent on August 27. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent was partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 23.6 percent to 23.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, September 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

August 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 5.1 percent on August 27, down from 5.7 percent on August 25. After recent releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 23.6 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.39 percentage points to -0.90 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.